Detective D
Well-Known Member
It is not some brilliant plan to have a bunch of illegal people move into our country. It would not even be a discussion if people would evaluate what has happened since around 1995.As a former tradesman and subsequently a career construction manager, I can look back with an insiders view and say this issue has been building for decades. It's now at an significantly impactful level, and the outlook is dim. The upcoming generations get softer and softer and are taught not to respect trade work... so young people take on a load of student debt, work low wage desk jobs, and then complain about income inequality, high cost of living, blah, blah, blah.
Our local high school was touting how they had 100% of the graduating class going to college. Instead we should be proud to say that X% are going to trade schools, apprenticeships, or straight to work. We need a fundamental societal shift.
For all the negativity about immigration, we actually need immigrants that are motivated and willing to do physical work. I am convinced that our governing bodies over the last 30+ years fully understand this, and that is why so much undocumented immigration is actually allowed to happen. The construction industry has been leaning on this for years.
Clinton allowed the major banks to use savings money and loan interest to do speculative trading when he revoked Glass-Steagal. That law was put in place when FDIC was put into place, because tax payers would bail out other tax payers if their bank went bad. Once that law was revoked, tax payers had to bail out banks that had used normal, working Joe's car loan interest and savings accounts to trade stocks. When that law was revoked, so much money poured into the stock market it is almost unfathomable. So it kept going up and up and up, and they kept putting money in.
Except they didn't have endless money, people only had so much savings, so many car loans to make. So they pushed mortgages, because they could use the mortgage interest from THE LIFE OF THE MORTGAGE to put into stocks. So people taking 30 year loans in 2001 meant the bank could take interest they wouldn't see until 2030 and use it for speculative trading.
Then they sold mortgage securities, because having those mortgages meant you could get your hands on that interest money. So people took loans, the loan got sold without their consent or even knowledge sometimes, even so far as to sell it in pieces.
Then, they ran out of that money too. So then the housing market failed, everything failed.
TAXPAYERS BAILED OUT THE BANKS. Why? Not because "too big to fail" but because FDIC INSURED. We were on the hook to save their bacon, by law, through FDIC insurance because THAT is the money they used, and lost.
Why does all that matter? Because when that happened, the leadership of most every big bussiness said "This is fine, I don;t need a pay cut or to even lose profits much." Aaaaaand they just stopped paying people more money.
In the midwest, people in trades, manufacturing, construction.... they didn;t get a raise. For a decade. Maybe 13 years sometimes. Except all that money the banks poured in, well, it went out there into the marketplace and inflation went crazy, and deflation never made a dent in it. So people got to the point where they didn't buy a car, no one bought a home, everything stagnated and skilled people LEFT. They LEFT FROM EVERYWHERE, trade unions, non union, semi skilled.... they all hopped jobs to somewhere that would give them 50cents an hour more because it was better then the nothing they got for the last 8 years or more. many just dropped out of that, because if they couldn;t buy a car or home why work so hard?
Alternatively, people worked their *** off. Two jobs, 80 hours at one job, that entire span was "overtime is the cheapest labor" because after all, the pay was the same in 2015 as it was in 2005, but health insurance costs quadrupled. So people worked double the hours a week because then they could earn 22 bucks an hour instead of 15, for at least half the time.
So those young people now.... guess what? They grew up watching Mom and Dad both doing that and thought: Holy cow, why TF would anyone do this just for a house? SO THEY DON'T.
Then, about 5 years ago, TSHTF. Massive labor shortages, employee retention fell apart. Why? Because the economy had finally uncorked and businesses had big sales, and needed more people, and the only way to get them was to throw money out there. We have been in 5-6 years worth of WAGE WAR ever since. We never did catch up to where we are supposed to be, hence McDonald's paying more then some manufacturing positions. The needle moves slow in industry, and the trades, they can;t look at quarter to quarter like retail and adjust on the fly, they need contracts to work through, material prices to move, etc.
Bringing in hoardes of people isn;t to "bolster the workforce" it is to MAINTAIN THE STANDARD OF INCREDIBLY CHEAP LABOR that has been in place for almost 15 years and suddenly got totally rocked in the last 5-6. People actually were allowed to almost catch up in the wage game(see: housing market boom) so a flood of new people is supposed to stagnate that again. It won't, because they printed so much money they can never put the genie back in the bottle. There are plenty of people willing to work, they are just looking at the effort vs. the pay and choosing less effort for not much less pay.
This is why I wrote in my last giant comment we are in a whole new world for wages. We have 20 YEARS of wage stagnation to catch up on. 3% a year for a good worker is 60% of what they earned before. If it was $20/hour in 2005, it will be $30-35 now. $40/hour in 2005? try $65/hour now. Maybe more. From what I can tell, the only ones to figure this out so far are car mechanics that are charging $120/hour shop rate now when it was $30 in 2005. In 2005 construction framers by me made $12-20/hour depending on position and tenure. Now they make $15-25. Imagine being in that industry for the last 18 years and earning $5/hour more then you did back then. What young person in their right mind is going to go after house framing for $15/hour when they can go sit on a stool at ALDI for $18? The answer is none of them will, and the framer that didn;t get a raise for 18 years has moved on to something different so he could get an extra $2/hour because every little bit helps.
So instead of owning up to our mistakes and fixing the issue and making plans to help business adapt and people to catch up on wages, instead the answer is to flood the country with more labor and try to maintain a state of barely middle class for skilled labor? YEAH< OUR LEADERS ARE SO BRILLIANT.
Frankly, the idea of building a business around a bunch of undocumented illegal workers just because they will show up for $5/hour less then people that already live in your hometown sounds really, really, really stupid. Does anyone imagine the illegals will choose the hardest jobs for barely more money any more then the young generation does now? WHY WOULD THEY? Why wouldn't they go sit at ALDI too?
Figure out what your company paid in 2005, add at least 60% minimum and see where that lands on your pay scale. Keep in mind if you paid a premium for a niche skillset before, you will probably be looking more like +100% or more because the available labor in that niche is much smaller then it was in 2005. That is the price we all have to pay to right the ship because of almost 20 years of absolute heinous economic policy making.
The alternative is to let it all collapse, and we can live like China or worse.
Sorry this got so long, but too many people have their head in the sand for the last two decades.