Project car on hold until retirement! What kind of value/price increase can I expect?

[Ex_Birdgunner]

Hey guys,

I have always had the dream to do a project car with the '69 Charger as my top pick. However, it looks like I will be putting that on hold until I get retire from the military in about 10 years. The reason for this decision was based on the fact that until I am done in the military I will be moving every 3-4 years, which could make it difficult to continue the project. Plus, I can't guarantee that I would have a garage at every location. On the upside I will be able to use my severance pay that I will be getting towards my project. In the meantime I got myself a nice 2012 Challenger R/T as my daily driver. Which has now put a '70 Challenger on my list of project car prospects. LOL!

So while I wait for the day that I can actually get into a project I was wondering what kind of price increase I could expect for a project car? Will they stay relatively the same or what?

Thanks,

Denis

 

[70rr-brian]

On the downside for you Obama will be out of office. With him still in office you could guarantee a depressed economy. Then again with him still in office you could be out of a military job so you might get to start sooner than you think. You know he would continue to gut the military. Assuming you survive all that... You can probably pretty much guarantee it will take the nation 6-8 years or more to recover from his damage. So my guess is, right about the time you get out in 10 years the economy should start to take off again. So I would expect a 10-20% increase in added costs in that timeframe.

Yes older people who cherish these cars will die lessening the demand. But there will be fewer left for restoration. So from that aspect most likely a wash. I stand by my reasoning of 10-20% increase.

 

[Montclaire]

If you have anywhere that you can stash a project (it doesn't need to move with you - family, friend, whatever) I would get what you want and just sit on it. Whatever repop parts you need, I would buy those too, as the market is gone and it's hard to say when some pieces will be disco'd.

 

[AMX364]

Project cars can come from many places anywhere from a barn find to someone with health issues. X2 on best guess of price rise of 10-20%.

 

[Ex_Birdgunner]

70rr-Brian,

I should have mentioned in my original post that I am in the Canadian Military, the Royal Canadian Air Force to be exact. So I'm not worried for my job just yet. That sounds like a reasonable assessment. 10-20% increase sounds reasonable. However, I half agree with your last sentence. I think more cars stand the chance of getting discovered for restoration and the sons and daughters of the older people who cherished these cars could possibly keep the market alive. Just a thought.

Montclaire,

My wife and I are planning to make the house for our next move our last one and rent it out when we move again so we have a house to retire in. If there is a way to store a project car until I retire I might look at that option. It would come down to what cash I have to spend. Also, that course of action is risky since my taste might change thus negating the car I choose. I'm not so sure though that the market is gone. I remember people saying that over 10 years ago and the restoration market has only grown I think.

AMX364,

Agreed.

 

[66 coronet deluxe]

I don't see the car market going up in my opinion. Maybe slightly with the cost of living, but baby boomers aren't getting younger. The kids today are now driving the 4 cylinder stuff because gas prices are through the roof, $1.30 a litre in Canada. So they can burn around in a 2000lb car and still get decent mileage. I would continue to watch car prices and buy when you are ready to restore at retirement. There may actually be better deals out there in 10 years as a lot of muscle car owners get too old to drive, the market may get flooded and prices drop.

 

[SteveSS]

I saw a guy that had a pretty good idea. He bought crap houses near major universities when the real estate market fell. They all had detached garages. He said college kids make great renters since they don't bitch about much. He had classic cars stuffed in all the garages.

 

[northerndave]

I dont think the project cars will go up much, and I dont think parts will go up much (metal parts, rubber stuff, emblems, decals, glass etc.)

Labor will increase. So in my opinion it depends on how much you plan on doing yourself.

Military retirees can be relatively young men. (I could have retired from US Marines 4 years ago and I'm in my early 40's)

I think you will see it mostly in labor, and if you plan to do that yourself then maybe you wont see much difference in the overall project cost in 10 years.

 

[Ex_Birdgunner]

I don't see the car market going up in my opinion. Maybe slightly with the cost of living, but baby boomers aren't getting younger. The kids today are now driving the 4 cylinder stuff because gas prices are through the roof, $1.30 a litre in Canada. So they can burn around in a 2000lb car and still get decent mileage. I would continue to watch car prices and buy when you are ready to restore at retirement. There may actually be better deals out there in 10 years as a lot of muscle car owners get too old to drive, the market may get flooded and prices drop.

Yes, I guess it is hard to tell where the market will be exactly in 10 years. I do plan to watch the car projects that I am interested in and IF there is a deal to be had AND I'm in a position to buy the car I might look at getting it early.

I saw a guy that had a pretty good idea. He bought crap houses near major universities when the real estate market fell. They all had detached garages. He said college kids make great renters since they don't bitch about much. He had classic cars stuffed in all the garages.

That IS a great idea. Probably a good investment on the rental properties too.

I dont think the project cars will go up much, and I dont think parts will go up much (metal parts, rubber stuff, emblems, decals, glass etc.)

Labor will increase. So in my opinion it depends on how much you plan on doing yourself.

Military retirees can be relatively young men. (I could have retired from US Marines 4 years ago and I'm in my early 40's)

I think you will see it mostly in labor, and if you plan to do that yourself then maybe you wont see much difference in the overall project cost in 10 years.

The labour increase does make sense as it should go up with the cost of living. I do plan to do as much work as possible myself while outsourcing things I can't do like paint and machine work.

I will be realatively young when I retire from the Military. I am currently on a contract to take me to 25 years of service and that will be up in Nov. 2021 so about 7 1/2 years. I hope to continue to 30 years so add 5 more. At 25 years in I will only be 44 yo and at 30 years in 49 so not too bad of an age to retire at. One thing I am considering is making sure I have the perfect house with a proper garage for my last move in the military. That way I could even look at buying the project car itself a couple of years before I get out. In the meantime I will keep watching the market and putting money aside for when that day does come.

 

[Cranky]

With an up stock market, the price of collectable cars get soft and just the opposite when the stock market is depressed and trying to predict what the market will do is like counting your chickens before the eggs hatch......jmho.

 

[Bruzilla]

I'm going to go the other way and predict a marked decrease in prices. I'm going with this for these reasons:

1. Gen X'ers. Millenials, and whatever catchy names someone comes up with for the post baby-boomer era buyers are not going to have the same interest in 1960s and 1970s cars as baby-boomers have. Classic car purchases are largely driven by an emotional attachment to the past, and these cars have no emotional attachment for most next generation buyers. A lot of baby boomers are going to be dying off over the next ten years, which is going to greatly lower demand.

2. The demand for 60s-70s cars was artificially increased since 1987 by investors who fled the stock market and turned to classic cars as a safer return on investment. There was another shift in 2008 once precious metals prices began to rise and investors found they could make more money by investing in precious metals and they only need a safety deposit box to maintain their investment instead of a climate-controlled garage. The exodus of investors from the market has been driving prices down very quickly, and with less and less baby boomers around to take up the slack there's no reason to expect to see an increase in demand.

3. There are a lot of people who wish to use high-end/limited number cars as a benchmark, but that benchmark in no way applies to project cars beyond simple wishful thinking. Yes, a very low-mileage, original, very limited production, very popular car like a Hemi Cuda Convertible, or Ram Air IV GTO Judge, or COPO Camaro will always bring in a lot of $$$$, but the days of all classic cars bringing in big $$$$ are over. Superbirds that were pushing $300,000 are now down to half that amount and even Hemi cars are down a good 50%.

4. The biggest driver of project car prices has been the restoration business, and like all other aspects of 1960s/1970s cars, this aspect is in decline. Younger buyers are more interested in classic trucks and resto-mod vehicles, and the market is flooded with restored vehicles. This is why when you watch the high-end auctions over the past couple of years, you're not hearing the term "fresh restoration" much any more. Now you hear "recent restoration" as most of the cars being auctioned were restored a few years ago, sold, and are now getting dumped back onto the market, and demand for cars coming straight from restoration shops is tanking. Project car prices were largely based on how much the cars would be worth once they were restored, and now that fewer and fewer restorations are being done, project car demand and values are dropping and will continue to fall along with the values of restored vehicles. This last fact will be a real killer for demand for project cars. The days of paying top dollar for a big block/low production project car that you could drop $40,000 into restoring and sell for $100,000+ are over, and more and more we're seeing restoration project costs exceeding finished car values. People who used to be eager to pay $10,000 or $20,000 for a project car are now finding little room for profit and leaving the market to collectors and enthusiasts who want to buy a project car for their own use, and they are more and more looking for cars in the $5k or less range. In the 90s, project car values were more about the VIN and data tags than the condition of the car, and that's no longer the case.

I suspect a lot of people are hoping prices will rise as a natural result of inflation, fewer cars on the road, and the traditional understanding that prices have steadily increased for three decades now and will continue to do so. But I suspect the harsh reality is that the folks who have been driving sales the most, the baby boomers and investors, are going to be leaving the market due to old age, death, and better investments, and there's zero reason to expect younger folks to take their place in anywhere near the numbers needed to even sustain, yet alone increase, demand, and that's going to cause prices to fall substantially.

 

[chargin']

I think finding a "project" car today that doesn't need everything replaced is a challenge. I think Montclaire has a good point,buy what you can find now that's good! I bought a Dart 18 years ago,and just started it this year....one of the best decisions I've made.

 

[Bruzilla]

I think finding a "project" car today that doesn't need everything replaced is a challenge.

I think you're right, and it is going to become more of a challenge in the future. As the restoration business declines, and drags down demand for basket case cars, I suspect you're going to see more and more project cars that need everything replaced becoming parts cars, which is really what they should have been all along.

Going back to the early to mid-1980s, before Black Monday changed everything, you would have been considered a very foolish person for even considering bringing back a car that needed everything replaced. If you go back and read car mags from the time, there was a lot of debate going on over whether it was better to buy a project car or pay more for one that's done. One car that drew a lot of debate in the Mopar community in Jacksonville back in the early 1980s was a black 1969 Hemi GTX that Sundowner Motors had for sale on their lot for $10,000, which was an unheard of price back then. The car was like new, but $10,000 for a car that old? A lot of folks said no way, and if you want a Hemi GTX you'ld be much better off buying a 440 car and modifying it. And this was the debate that was raging at the time... by the time you take the time to round up all the parts, pay for them, get them installed, and work out all the bugs, are you really any better off than if you had paid for a completed car? In most cases you weren't.

Looking at things more recently, prices have been artificially high due to investors for almost three decades, which has meant the entry point to the hobby for most people has been buying a basketcase car that needs everything replaced but that you can get into for $5,000 or so. This has been because restored cars were selling for such high prices that collectors were having to compete with flippers for any car that was halfway decent, and flippers always had more money. Now that the investors are leaving, flipping restorations is going away, and collectors are regaining control of the market. When I was looking for a 73/74 Road Runner 4-5 years ago, $5,000 was about enough to get you into a pile of disassembled parts that was a car at one time. Just getting into a car that needed everything replaced but was at least assembled took at least $7,000. Now a days I'm seeing rollers selling for $750-$1,500 and cars that are in very good shape for $5,000, and $7,000 will get you a very nice driver. If someone had asked me five years ago if I would consider taking on a 71 or 72 Road Runner project, I would have said no way since basketcase cars were selling for $10,000+, now... I'm thinking about it because I've been seeing more and more of these cars steadily coming down to under $5,000.

My guess is in 10 years, a lot of the needs everything replaced cars are going to be gone and parted out, and the project car market will be where it should be, which is lots of good rollers or drivers competing for buyers with restored or resto-mod cars, and we'll be back to the debate of whether it makes more sense to enter the market cheap with a fixer upper or pay for a restored car and spend less overall.

 

[RS23VOA]

I would buy up the parts you know you need if you can find them, especially NOS stuff. I bought my GTX in the late 80's. I started hoarding stuff for it and now that i'm getting to work on it, i have parts waiting for my.

 

[Bruzilla]

That's a great point, especially if you're considering going the resto-mod route with a newer Hemi drivetrain, which is all the rage these days. Prices on Hemis from wrecked cars are getting pretty reasonable, and I don't see Chrysler making these for too much longer.

 

[Budnicks]

I highly doubt it will be any cheaper to do these cars in the following 10 years, next decade, cost of living, labor, wages, parts prices all have a tendency to go up, not down, if so it very rarely, the car may be cheaper if the trends switch to a different style of cars, that would make some parts & some cars even more rare, more desirable/marketable & IMHFO probably more expensive, especially for any of the "true" quality products, prices, services or cars anyway... IMO It's always been, If it was popular when it sold originally/in the 1st place, then it will still have a following & value a decade later... The hobby has never gotten any cheaper in my 37+ years of dealing with theses cars & building them, trends change, prices/markets fluctuate, but are more than they were 10 years ago.... The baby boom was until 1964, that's mostly the clientèle & market for these cars, with a few in the younger crowds thrown in, the younger boomers are only 50 y/o today, the younger sector of the baby boomers will only be 60, hopefully they/we in the baby boomer era, will still have disposable income, after the Obama presidency debacles, tax & spend crowd, is out 10 years from now...

 

[Ryguytoodry]

The prices are going to stay the same. Sure parts and projects are getting fewer and farther between, but the amount of people looking for parts and projects is declining as well. Like Budnicks said, my generation has very little care for classic Mopars. For every one old Mopar there is 100 old Fords, 200 old chevys, and 10,000 post-1980 cars (from what I see at least.). And just because the ford and chevy numbers are higher than ours doesn't mean they aren't having the same problems as us. Average people aged 30-40 would rather go buy a fox body or 3rd gen Camaro. Ages 16-29 would rather go buy an import.

 

[HawkRod]

I have a different take on it. If you buy a project car now you have to pay (or borrow storage), plus pay for parts and eventually labor to fix it up.

I would say rather than buying the car now I would save my money and then be ready to buy something in 10 years. But, you need to force the savings: Have a couple of hundred bucks deducted from your pay every month and put into a money market fund. Eventually, you will forget this happens and in 10 years you will have $24000 plus interest.

Why do I suggest this:

1) If the market goes down for whatever reason, you will be able to buy a better car than you ever could have now. Remember, it is cheaper to buy a #3 car than to buy a #4 car and pay to repair it to a #3 car. Always buy the best, most complete car you can for the money you have.

2) If you change your tastes in cars B vs. A vs. E body, etc. it does not matter. You can still buy what you like later.

3) If the market goes up, then in most cases the standard of living goes up about the same. Plus, since you are saving your money and can but a car in better shape, that helps offset the increases. The only case where waiting is a bad decision is if the price of these cars goes up way more than the standard of living.

So I say you wait.

So there it is. Not saying I'm right, jut saying that's my $0.02...

 

[Bruzilla]

I highly doubt it will be any cheaper to do these cars in the following 10 years, next decade, cost of living, labor, wages, parts prices all have a tendency to go up, not down, if so it very rarely, the car may be cheaper if the trends switch to a different style of cars, that would make some parts & some cars even more rare, more desirable/marketable & IMHFO probably more expensive, especially for any of the "true" quality products, prices, services or cars anyway... IMO It's always been, If it was popular when it sold originally/in the 1st place, then it will still have a following & value a decade later... The hobby has never gotten any cheaper in my 37+ years of dealing with theses cars & building them, trends change, prices/markets fluctuate, but are more than they were 10 years ago.... The baby boom was until 1964, that's mostly the clientèle & market for these cars, with a few in the younger crowds thrown in, the younger boomers are only 50 y/o today, the younger sector of the baby boomers will only be 60, hopefully they/we in the baby boomer era, will still have disposable income, after the Obama presidency debacles, tax & spend crowd, is out 10 years from now...

Guys like you and me have been running with the boomers for as long as we've been involved with cars, so it's hard to imagine life without them. In a traditional market, cars depreciate from new, steady out once they hit the basic transportation mark (usually in the $1,000 range) the are usually lost to the junkyards unless collector factors kick in. Going back to the early 1980s, a lot of our cars were on the way to the crushers and would be gone were it not for the investors artificially driving up interest and prices, but the amount of interest in these cars would be much, much lower too. Had that not happened, I doubt there would even be a market for project cars right now, at least not the rough ones. The needs of the buyer market would be met by drivers and what restored cars were around. A great example of this is what we old timers see as the antique market, cars made before 1940 or so, and the classics from 1940-1965. These cars soared in popularity and price until the guys who had grown up with them died out, and now the energy in their markets has been steadily declining. We're going to see the same thing with our cars as we die out and to Pabster's point, while there will always be some people in newer generations with an interest in our cars, it won't be enough to generate the level of interest, and commensurate pricing, that we see today.

I know speaking personally, I've seen a steep increase in the number of project cars entering the market. I think a lot of folks had been holding these back in the expectation their values would keep increasing, but they're now seeing the handwriting on the wall and it's saying your car is not going to be worth more than it is today so sell now. And we're also seeing how the project market is collapsing under the weight of the driver market. YY1 just started a string about a 73 Road Runner that was sold on CL for $3k and the owner was trying to do a quick fix & flip on ebay for $6k. The car has a good bit of rust and isn't in great shape, but three or four years ago that car would sell easily for $6k, but now decent drivers are selling for that range and even after lowering the price on ebay the guy still didn't sell it. I think he paid too much at $3k, and if he doesn't move fast he's going to end up having to sell at $1,500 or so. Cars that rough are going to start becoming parts cars, not restoration projects, and that's where the market should be.

 

[Durandal25]

....I have an even simpler take on all this. Build it because you love it, passion and cars are their own reward and I would not trade either of mine or the memories of working on them with my kids for all asset appreciation or depreciation in the world.