Woah, man, that one's a seriously layered, complicated matter.... and one I've been fascinated with
my whole life. No easy answer to that one.
From being a kid in Atlanta in the 60's and having Guy Sharpe as a childhood hero (along with Hank Aaron,
of course) to now, I've maintained a fascination with just what makes weather "tick".
(For those who don't know, Guy Sharpe was a local fixture in TV weathermen in Atlanta for like 50 years and
was pretty much the prototype for today's "weatherman with personality" types we see everywhere now.
He visited our school every year and was just great with kids, especially mini-nerds like me).
Terrain, prevailing upper level airstream patterns, regional nuances, history - there's just so much more to it
than what one reads on our little mini-weather stations (yeah, always had one of those, fairly fancy one now).
Some of it is just plain knowing where you are and "gut instincts", too.
I have a friend who is a proper, acknowledged on-air meteorologist in DC now who swears I have a knack for
it and should have pursued it when I was younger. He's being very generous there, that's for sure.
He sees what I sometimes post on facebook to friends and neighbors when I think something of concern
is coming our way (especially friggin' tornados, which I have a more-than-average dread of, having seen a
couple up close as a kid) and of course, having all the resources he has at his disposal, will check up on
us down this way, then messages me on whether or not he concurs with my concerns -
always in a positive,
encouraging way, even when he's basically saying "you're way off on this one, Ed").
Long-winded way of my answering your question is - it's complicated, man.