I'm already sick of hearing about AI!!

[GetX'd]

40% of what jobs?
The industry I work in makes stuff.
Maybe the engineer that works on design needs to worry? I don't think the 150 labor+ support staff have to worry about a computer assembling anything or working on the machines.
Maybe someday when they invent the T1000 but not for a long while.

I think office cubical types that spent money to get a pointless paper for paper club and work in 50 story buildings should be worried. But then, they always should have been worried.

Sounds like you know more than the people that do know. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.….

 

[kiwigtx]

View attachment 1573737

That explains the sign on a tree I saw back in March......

 

[440 PHIXX]

Sounds like you know more than the people that do know. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.….

GM replaced line workers back in 1970 when they built the assembly line for the Vega. But robots are still prohibitively expensive to replace labor. AI is going to replace overhead.

 

[Detective D]

Sounds like you know more than the people that do know. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.….

I am no expert lol.
but think about it, AI is a computer program. Until they figure out how to give it a body(I'll be bahk!) it can't do stuff.
Technicians, installers, general labor, skilled trades.... AI can;t build a new 15 minute city these people are all hyped about. Someone has to go do stuff.

It really is the corporate people that need to worry. AI will out think and predict every financial person on the planet, will figure out how to make a software to cut workforce for menial data entry jobs, that sort of thing. It will make a good tool for design, but someone will still have to come up with the actual design concept to plug in, so enginners will probably get tools more than anything for a long while.

Financial people better watch out though LOL. AI will predict the market in real time. Grifter financial planners can't compete with that. May have to get a job and earn money instead of moving pretend paper around now.

 

[Detective D]

GM replaced line workers back in 1970 when they built the assembly line for the Vega. But robots are still prohibitively expensive to replace labor. AI is going to replace overhead.

Someone had to build the robots, install them, maintain them, program them. AI can't build robots or move them into a plant. Not yet.
Robots are getting easier to use and more versatile though. This makes ROI easier to justify.
My plant uses them. A few, but they are put in place to supplement labor and reduce repetitive motion tasks, not replace. People like having the collaborative robots in their work area, because it usually means it is one less annoying task they have to do for the day. We have not reduced labor, but we have improved retention and efficiency, and the co-bots can be moved for a variety of tasks.

 

[440 PHIXX]

Someone had to build the robots, install them, maintain them, program them. AI can't build robots or move them into a plant. Not yet.
Robots are getting easier to use and more versatile though. This makes ROI easier to justify.
My plant uses them. A few, but they are put in place to supplement labor and reduce repetitive motion tasks, not replace. People like having the collaborative robots in their work area, because it usually means it is one less annoying task they have to do for the day. We have not reduced labor, but we have improved retention and efficiency, and the co-bots can be moved for a variety of tasks.

The robots replaced the spot welders. They were high paying labor jobs that were basically gone from the automotive industry by the late 70’s.

 

[Photon440]

GM replaced line workers back in 1970 when they built the assembly line for the Vega. But robots are still prohibitively expensive to replace labor. AI is going to replace overhead.

Why then are automobile factories still installing robots, if they're that expensive? Just this year (in March) it was reported that the number of robots building cars has reached 1,000,000 units. N. Korea, the USA, Germany and Japan have plenty of them, China with its cheap labor force is lagging far behind in this. I'm sure the unions aren't forcing the companies to install them, so why do it?

 

[440 PHIXX]

Why then are automobile factories still installing robots, if they're that expensive? Just this year (in March) it was reported that the number of robots building cars has reached 1,000,000 units. N. Korea, the USA, Germany and Japan have plenty of them, China with its cheap labor force is lagging far behind in this. I'm sure the unions aren't forcing the companies to install them, so why do it?

View attachment 1573789

I was referring to small businesses. Big Corporations have the capital to invest large sums that won’t pay for themselves for a couple of years.

 

[Photon440]

I was referring to small businesses. Big Corporations have the capital to invest large sums that won’t pay for themselves for a couple of years.

Thanks for the clarification. Your post started with "GM" so I didn't know you were referring to small businesses.

But even smaller companies are benefiting from robotics, whether from self guided carts in an assembly process or automatic parts stacking and retrieval in warehouses. The majority of some surgeries, such as prostrate cancer removal, is done by Da Vinci robotics.

Falling sensor prices, 3D printing and open source are reducing the cost of robots which is expected to be a $210,000,000,000. industry within the next two years.

https://www.automate.org/industry-insights/robots-for-small-business-a-growing-trend

 

[Frank Mopar]

Hey A1, what kind of oil do I need?

 

[1967coronet]

Reminds me of the BS that we put up with at the 1999 to 2000 new years change.

 

[GetX'd]

Reminds me of the BS that we put up with at the 1999 to 2000 new years change.

Maybe so - reminders can be a bitch when they are moving to scale the this AI infrastructure is. One of the other things my guy asked in the conference was % of robots taking human jobs in the next 5 years? His prediction was no more than 2% - for now. But anyone is a fool that doesn’t listen for the thunderous waves of the biggest sunami to ever hit this planet. And as I said earlier big filthy evil tech are the corps driving most of it w/big govt opening the flood gates for them. We’re just pawns in the game, nothing more.

Likely a high % of guys/gals on this forum will be retired before getting completely rolled over - That’s partly why it doesn’t scare me too much - being an early adopter will do everyone better than putting our heads in the sand. I’d say anyone in their mid to later fifties on down to the alphabet generations are likely going to be impacted from a work standpoint by AI and most of us certainly will be from a personal perspective. I sure as hell feel better knowing I’m not going be in the workforce and the impact will be all personal - and even then we’ll likely be able to pick and choose what we adopt because it won’t be writing our paychecks.

Y2K was indeed a mega billion $$ boon doggle that many countries didn’t spend a dime on. US paranoia - And I would guess an extremely healthy dose of multi-faceted corruption created and profited from it. AI is a far different animal - You can bet this dog is going to hunt ….

 

[GetX'd]

I am no expert lol.
but think about it, AI is a computer program. Until they figure out how to give it a body(I'll be bahk!) it can't do stuff.
Technicians, installers, general labor, skilled trades.... AI can;t build a new 15 minute city these people are all hyped about. Someone has to go do stuff.

It really is the corporate people that need to worry. AI will out think and predict every financial person on the planet, will figure out how to make a software to cut workforce for menial data entry jobs, that sort of thing. It will make a good tool for design, but someone will still have to come up with the actual design concept to plug in, so enginners will probably get tools more than anything for a long while.

Financial people better watch out though LOL. AI will predict the market in real time. Grifter financial planners can't compete with that. May have to get a job and earn money instead of moving pretend paper around now.

My response inadvertently went into 67 Coronet’s post above - really meant for everyone.

If you think AI is a “computer program” - Wow wake up and smell the …. You must not have the faintest clue of what’s about to roll you over ….

 

[BSB67]

If you think AI is a “computer program” - Wow wake up and smell the …. You must not have the faintest clue of what’s about to roll you over ….

I don't get too wound up about a lot of stuff: kids today, politics, education system, gender confusion, global warming, military conflicts.......These things ebb and flow, and the world adapts, and maybe not for the better, certainly not according to us old middle class guys.

AI kinda scares me. The most powerful people in the world, including heads of foreign countries are in the chess game. Then there is a crazy mutany followed by a coup involving the worlds brightest people in this space. And I cannot tell if the good guys won or not, or if there are even any good guys.

Interesting that some think this is about some white collar jobs, and won't affect anyone else.

 

[Cranky]

Y2K didn't worry me any at all for some reason....but sure did for others. A young friend of my youngest daughter got caught up in it when her dad decided to sell the house and move into the country to get ready for the dooms day that was approaching. He spent their life's savings on that place in the country building food and safety bunkers etc. Last time I heard from them his wife had left with whatever she could salvage from that mess.

In the 79 I got a job with a company called CAMCO.....Computer Aided Machining Co and thought wow. Each machine still was manned but not too long ago I got to see the new CAM's with no one stationed at them. At the now old shop, each machine had to be loaded with the raw material and then unloaded and checked to make sure it was within tolerance etc. I can see the day when (if it's not already happening) the machine can load and unload itself and make sure the part is right and probably replace it's own worn tooling....and then build a new machine if needed and even adjust it's own program or even write a new one based on info it received from afar from across the street or from across the pond.

 

[cr8crshr]

Once it is started by removing all the human element of things, then all bets are off and we will become unneeded. Scary S**T ain't it??? cr8crshr/Bill

 

[Photon440]

Y2K didn't worry me any at all for some reason....but sure did for others. A young friend of my youngest daughter got caught up in it when her dad decided to sell the house and move into the country to get ready for the dooms day that was approaching. He spent their life's savings on that place in the country building food and safety bunkers etc. Last time I heard from them his wife had left with whatever she could salvage from that mess.

In the 79 I got a job with a company called CAMCO.....Computer Aided Machining Co and thought wow. Each machine still was manned but not too long ago I got to see the new CAM's with no one stationed at them. At the now old shop, each machine had to be loaded with the raw material and then unloaded and checked to make sure it was within tolerance etc. I can see the day when (if it's not already happening) the machine can load and unload itself and make sure the part is right and probably replace it's own worn tooling....and then build a new machine if needed and even adjust it's own program or even write a new one based on info it received from afar from across the street or from across the pond.

That CAM could likely build a copy of its own mechanical parts because it is designed to shape metal, but building a new computer to run it with its cpu, power transformers and memory chips would require a completely different type of fab plant.

 

[Cranky]

That CAM could likely build a copy of its own mechanical parts because it is designed to shape metal, but building a new computer to run it with its cpu, power transformers and memory chips would require a completely different type of fab plant.

As time goes on, why wouldn't some manufacturers do something like that. An all in one type of business so to speak. The refinery I used to work in was kinda that way for a lot of things. Hardly anything in our pumps were standardized and after awhile, the pump package from the records room would have a program in it to tell the machines what to do and any changes made would also be incorporated into the program be it manually or digitally. They have a good number of CAM's now to do just that.....and the chips etc would be bought pretty much like it is now.

 

[Detective D]

My response inadvertently went into 67 Coronet’s post above - really meant for everyone.

If you think AI is a “computer program” - Wow wake up and smell the …. You must not have the faintest clue of what’s about to roll you over ….

My words overly simplify it, but YES, AI is not an intelligence, it is an extremely elaborate software that has algorythms to adjust it's outputs based on feedback. It doesn't "learn" it adjusts and refines. hooking such a powerful software to the internet makes it appear infallible. Someone still had to program it, someone still has to give it inputs and parameters to get the output.
It needs data to output different data.
It may seem like it "makes new ideas" but it is simply compiling existing data at a rate humans can not.
it doesn;t make new art, it takes all existing art and morphs it into something.
It does not make a new invention, it takes all existing inventions and morphs them into something.

IBM Watson went on Jeopardy and was essentially unbeatable. All it was, was a massive database hooked to the internet on top.
AI is a very powerful refinement program that can compute much more rapidly than a human. People will apply this to accomplish tasks in data anaylisis and design.
Would you drive a car 100% designed by AI with no human involvement? I sure as hell wouldn't. Look at the picture with the mustang and the horse posted on the boards where the car has two front ends.
Go watch AI try to make videos of people eating. AI has not been able to refine it's outputs of the action and function of eating yet.
Always improving. But it is still taking existing things and compiling them. It isn't making a new anything.

And it sure as hell won't swing a hammer or pull a wrench.
I don't like the concept of AI. not on it's face, but because of what has been made plainly obvious to all but the most head in the sand people in recent years: what government and corporations will try to do with it. Since the invention of the internet, rotten, immoral, evil people have been manipulating and scheming on how to ply it to generate even more control and wealth without spreading it out to the public. AI will be the same.
But AI is not an independant life, an electronic human brain. It is still a very powerful and capable software. Humans keep trying to break that barrier and someday they may, but for now the evil people will take the current step and ply it, that last step when they finally reach it and try to grasp it will undo us all, but that last step to an artificial brain is a long ways off, I suspect political turmoil will destroy most of us before then.

 

[Hey-O]

Can only imagine what's about to happen next with it.....

Maybe they can replace some of those over paid, self absorbed hollywood so call actors. That's the only place I'd like to see AI used.