Ok one last shot.....
The actual flight path was not on a straight line as portrayed in the flight path map.
She took off east of Lae, over the Solomon Sea to Choiseul island (SE of Bougainville) then headed north east to Nukumanu Atol. Nukumanu Atol was a critical point in the flight as that was a landmark that had to be sighted BEFORE DARK.
The daylight flight path took her over allied (Mostly Australian) known and controlled friendly territory. If she was doing reconnaissance work after Nukumanu Atol, she was doing it in the dark and, probably, too busy watching the stars for navigation instead of the sea for ships.
Her daylight reconnaissance mission would have been limited in distance and over friendly territory. What could be the expected results of such a limited reconnaissance mission?
Lae to Nukumanu Atol is approximately 800 surface miles.
Lae to Howland is approximately 2,556 Surface miles.
The operational distance of a PBY, put into service in late '36/ early '37 was approximately 2,500 miles. If desired, a PBY could have covered the same daylight route with longer linger time plus the ability to rest and refuel via tender along the way. There would be no hurry or concern about landing on water for a PBY. Plus, it could have been positioned further north to skirt the edges of the Marshall island group where the potential for Japanese ship movements could be expected.
AE and Noonan didn't know where they were. How could they be expected to credibly report on any suspicious movements by others?
Yes, a lot of the flight territory
was eventually under Japanese military control, but not until at least 4.5 years
after her flight when the Japanese were far more capable militarily and less distracted by China politically. The route, timing, actual flight factors, and other potential avenues of reconnaissance cannot suggest the AE flight was a viable recon flight.
Thank you for your service and I am envious that you have seen some significant islands and places I never will.
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